Solar Cycle 25

Article: Unfolding the Story of Solar Cycle 25

1. What Is Solar Cycle 25?

Solar Cycle 25 is the Sun’s current 11-year magnetic activity cycle, starting in December 2019, following the minimum of December 2019 with a smoothed sunspot number of about 1.8 en.wikipedia.orgweather.gov. It marks the 25th such cycle since the onset of regular sunspot records in 1755 en.wikipedia.org. Jupiter being the largest planet within our solar system possible has some effect on sunspot cycles.  Jupiters orbit takes 11.83 years and its immense gravity interacts with whats known as the Barycentre within the sun. en.wikipedia.org

2. Rise to Solar Maximum

Initially expected to be weak, Solar Cycle 25 has instead outpaced projections. The sunspot count not only exceeded early models but peaked earlier in 2024—a sign of a stronger-than-predicted cycle en.wikipedia.orghelioforecast.spaceSky & Telescope.

3. Predictions & Observations

Early Forecasts

• The 2019 prediction panel anticipated solar maximum around mid-2025 with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) near 115 spaceweather.govweather.gov.

Adjusted & Updated Outlooks

• By late 2023 and early 2025, NOAA released an experimental forecast—adjusted monthly—reflecting actual activity more accurately swpc.noaa.govtestbed.spaceweather.gov.

• Models like those from McIntosh, Leamon & Egeland (2023) suggest a sunspot peak in 2024 with SSN around 184 ±17 helioforecast.space.

4. Peak and Decline

• The non-smoothed sunspot count peaked at 216 in August 2024, while the smoothed peak arrived around October 2024 at approximately 160.8 en.wikipedia.org.

• Since then, sunspot activity has gradually declined—June 2025 data shows levels less than half the peak of the cycle solen.infosolarham.com.

5. Notable Solar Events

May 2024 Storms

• A dramatic series of solar storms from 10–13 May 2024, dubbed the “Mother’s Day” or “Gannon” storm, delivered the strongest geomagnetic disturbance (Dst: −412 nT) since March 1989, sparking auroras far from polar regions en.wikipedia.org.

Ongoing Impact

• As of March 2025, heightened solar activity has increased aurora visibility across the U.S., owing to frequent CMEs and flares Midland Daily News.

• In April 2025, Earth narrowly avoided a major solar storm; region AR4046 produced a powerful X-class flare, prompting warnings about potential communication and spacecraft disruptions nypost.com.

6. What Lies Ahead?

• Solar Cycle 25 is expected to continue into approximately 2030, marking it near average in length and strength en.wikipedia.orgnypost.com.

• Emerging research on longer-term solar trends, such as the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle, suggests the possibility that we’re in a broader phase of elevated solar activity—implying more active cycles ahead helioforecast.spaceBeaumont Enterprise.

Summary Table

Phase     Key Insights

• Start December 2019, following a sunspot minimum of 1.8 (smoothed)

• Forecast Predicted peak mid-2025 (SSN ~115), but exceeded by actual behavior

• Peak August 2024 (non-smoothed) and October 2024 (smoothed)

• Decline Noticeable reduction in activity by mid-2025

• Major Events May 2024 storms, 2025 aurora activity, April 2025 X-class flare

• Outlook Expected to last until ~2030, with potential for elevated activity beyond it

Here are visual insights into Solar Cycle 25:

Last modified 20 Aug 2025